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Black Friday shopping won't be as brisk, report suggests

For deal hunters, the day after Thanksgiving — Black Friday — is the can't-miss sales event of the year. From big-box franchise operators to small-business owners, sellers of all stripes and sizes often offer dramatic discounts to encourage people to shop in store or online. With inflation raging, millions of budget-minded buyers will be sure to take advantage of the price reductions while they last.

But a new forecast suggests deal hunting on Black Friday may not be as widespread as it's been in the past.

Only 1 in 5 Americans intend to shop this Black Friday, according to a recent survey conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers. That's down from 60% who said they would participate in Black Friday festivities in 2015, when a similar poll was conducted.

The PwC Holiday Outlook 2022 survey involved 4,000 respondents, represented by individuals from Generation Z, millennials, Generation X members and baby boomers. Across the board, a smaller percentage of people from each group said they would be buying on Black Friday compared to the findings of previous surveys by PwC. The declining trend suggests the novelty factor of Black Friday has worn off with some buyers.

Despite the pullback, Black Friday still remains popular with much of the buying public, particularly in comparison to other post-Thanksgiving holiday sales events, such as Cyber Monday (celebrated the first Monday after Thanksgiving) and Small Business Saturday. For instance, according to a separate survey conducted by the National Retail Federation (NRF), nearly 115 million shoppers are expected to partake in the Black Friday sales proceedings. And of the 115 million, over two-thirds will shop in a brick-and-mortar setting.

Black Friday remains popular  but not as popular compared to previous years. Black Friday remains popular — but not as popular compared to previous years.

A possible explanation for consumers' waning interest in shopping the day after Thanksgiving may be attributable to retailers making Black Friday a much longer sales extravaganza, occurring over weeks as opposed to a just a 24-hour period. Businesses like Kohl's, Walmart, Best Buy and more have rolled out various iterations of Black Friday events, some of them taking place over the entirety of November as well as December. Phil Rist, executive vice president for Prosper Insights & Analytics, noted in the NRF press release that holiday shopping among buyers is beginning earlier. This suggests that people may not have as much to purchase by the time Black Friday rolls around.

"This year, 18% of holiday shoppers have completed at least half of their holiday shopping," Rist explained. He added that while November and December account for the largest slices of the season, shopping in October has become more popular.

As for how much they'll be spending, customers aren't tightening their budgets all that drastically, even with inflation pushing prices higher. On average, consumers expect to spend $1,430 on gifts, travel and entertainment, according to the PwC Holiday Outlook report. That's just $17 below last year's total ($1,447).

The NRF forecasts retail sales during for Christmas could be better this year than 2021, potentially surpassing $960 billion. That would be a roughly 6% increase from last year's amount.

Inflation effects continue to frustrate supply chain processes

Supply chains abhor unpredictability, and throughout much of the past year, inflation has made unpredictability a regular occurrence, a reality that has affected how product-based businesses respond to demand from their customers as their budgets get stretched to the limit. And while inflation tempered slightly in October, it continues to handicap the economy as well as the prospect of the nation's overall supply chain achieving some level of normalcy.

In what's becoming a broken record, the Consumer Price Index rose in the latest monthly release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, this time in October relative to 12 months ago. Indeed, the all items index — which takes into account the rate of consumption of nearly 90% of the U.S. population — was up 7.7% on a seasonally unadjusted year-over-year basis.

The fact that the CPI rose 7.7% came as good news to some economists, who predicted that the annual increase would be 7.9%, according to reporting from Dow Jones. However, several kinds of goods that everyone buys on a weekly, if not daily, basis jumped appreciably. These include food at and away from home (10.9% and 12.4%, respectively), gasoline (17.5%) and heating oil (68.5%), among other essentials.

Imports have slipped every month since May. Imports have slipped every month since May.

Slowing demand has diminished imports 
While the CPI was down slightly from September, consumers continue to spend vastly more now than they did a year ago. Based on a Moody's Analytics review of September CPI data, the average household that month spent $445 more than it did this time last year, CNBC reported. Some families with the financial means are simply paying more. But many are being forced to cut back on the amounts they buy in order to stay within their budgets. This winds up creating supply chain instability for the businesses that produce the items those customers purchase, evidenced by reduced import activity, particularly among retailers. While imports reached a record high in May — with shipping ports processing 2.4 million TEUs, according to the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates — they've slipped consistently ever since, reaching 2.03 million TEUs in September.

At the same time, though, Americans aren't planning on cutting back when they begin their shopping for the holiday season. On average, they're expected to spend upwards of $930 on gifts for their friends, family and neighbors, a survey done by Gallup showed. That's up nearly $100 from last year ($837) and $805 in 2020.

Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation, said that in addition to high prices affecting import activity and contributing to unpredictability, businesses are also contending with an impending rail strike on the part of the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employee Division. A work stoppage would add one more wrinkle to a supply chain dilemma. But the fact that so many retailers stocked up early will help attenuate what effect a rail strike would have on product availability.

Returns are inevitable for the average retailer. Whatever they sell and wherever they may be selling it — be it in store or online — retailers can expect at least some of their products will find their way back  because merchandise doesn't fit, doesn't work, is the wrong order or a buyer changed their mind about their original purchase. The process is highly inconvenient both for retailers as well as the customer.

In an attempt to make the return process more seamless, one of the nation's leading retailers is rolling out a pilot program in tandem with a well-known logistics provider.

In collaboration with UPS, Overstock.com plans to introduce a new return process for its customers who need to send back merchandise they purchased, according to one of the company's top executives who briefly spoke about what the program will entail during an earnings call. Overstock.com CEO Jonathan Johnson noted that instead of having customers repackage their unwanted item(s) — which they're currently required to do — UPS will go customers' physical address and pick up the merchandise as-is, sparing them from the hassles associated with packaging and visiting the post office to arrange for shipping.

Johnson said customer satisfaction is always the goal for Salt Lake City-based e-tailer and that includes products they don't want or would like replaced.

"We are launching a pilot program in which returns will now be possible through simpler home pickup options, right from the customer's doorstep that don't require reboxing of the product by our customers," Johnson said, as reported by Seeking Alpha. "Through this pilot, both of our organizations will have the opportunity to better understand customer preferences and enable us to serve up options that align with their day-to-day lives."

Whether they're transported by air or truck, returns are a cost of doing business as a retailer.Whether they're transported by air or truck, returns are a cost of doing business as a retailer.

Returns cost retailers billions in 2021
Returns come with the territory for retailers — and they've had more of them of late. In 2021, for example, approximately $761 billion in merchandise was returned to the original sellers. That amounts to 16.6% of the $4.5 trillion in overall retail sales last year.

Johnson didn't specify during the earnings call exactly when the pilot program would begin — or which part of the country will have first access to it — but said the expectation is it will kick off at some point before 2022 concludes.

While e-commerce has in many ways made it more convenient to shop, online purchases are more likely to be returned than items purchased in brick-and-mortar environments. According to the National Retail Federation, online sales average a return rate of approximately 21%. In 2021, of the $1 trillion in merchandise retailers sold through the internet, more than one-fifth of it in terms of value — $218 billion — was returned. 

Johnson said he's confident that the pilot program will serve both the company's ends as well as customers' by increasing convenience and making returns less complex than they currently can be. The company made headway in this regard during the third quarter by cutting down on the number of large items that were sent back to its warehouses, such as furniture. Johnson said large item home delivery times were down 18% by the end of September compared to the beginning of July.

Ever since the mid-1990s, when the first online transaction is believed to have taken place, the internet has served as an additional avenue to buy and sell products and services. But during the pandemic, for many, it was the only avenue, particularly among retailers. It's little surprise, then, that e-commerce sales soared in 2020, topping $815 billion, up from roughly $571 billion in 2019, according to the Census Bureau. That's a 43% increase.

But with the lockdowns lifted and the pandemic (for all intents and purposes) over, where does e-commerce and online selling go from here? Here are a few trends that will likely have an impact on what e-commerce looks like a year from now:

1. Online sales will pick up steam
While online buying may be down from its peaks in 2020, sales are still well ahead of where they were prior to the pandemic. Due to rising inflation, high fuel prices and customers taking advantage of free shipping, online buying should intensify next year.

A strong holiday shopping season is expected to set the stage for 2023 as a whole. Indeed, online sales in November and December are forecast to reach over $267 billion, according to the National Retail Federation. That would be a roughly 10% increase from last year's total ($262 billion).

Retailers are also dealing with a glut of inventory, due in part to supply chain bottlenecks that have since worked themselves out. Offering deep discounts on merchandise to inflation-weary buyers can help sellers cut down on the inventory they have to carry over into next year. 

What trends will emerge in e-commerce in 2023?What trends will emerge in e-commerce in 2023?

2. Expanded use of automation
To save on business expenses and work around some of the social distancing measures designed to reduce the spread of COVID-19, many companies leveraged automation to supplant or support existing warehousing activities. With retailers still experiencing hiring woes, automation will likely expand its footprint, according to Lydia Jett, managing partner of an equity firm based in London. Speaking at Tech Live, an annual conference hosted by The Wall Street Journal, Jett noted that automation helps to improve the online buying experience for shoppers while streamlining the development process for producers. This includes addressing their frustrations with not having enough labor. Retail and the food service industry are among the sectors desperate for more workers.

3. Rise in social shopping
From Meta to Twitter to Instagram and TikTok, social media saturates the virtual world. Retailers are leveraging social media platforms to better connect with their target audiences and boost engagement. They're not only advertising on the social web but also making it possible for customers to actually buy from there, a concept known as social shopping.

While social shopping is not new, it's increasingly prevalent and will likely expand further in 2023. Kirsten Green, founder and managing partner of a venture capital firm, said at Tech Live that social shopping is a highly effective sales strategy, noting conversion rates are three times higher through the utilization of video rather than static images.

The intimate nature of the restaurant business — both for diners as well as for staff — made it the industry that was (arguably) the hardest hit during the COVID crisis. The mitigation measures dining establishments were forced to impose, like social distancing and use of face masks, created massive supply chain and operational challenges for all involved — many of which continue to this day.

So much so, restaurants of all sizes and types across the country are dramatically reducing the hours they're open for business, based on the results of a newly released survey by market research firm Datassential.

Relative to 2019, the typical restaurant in the United States is open for an average of 6.5 fewer hours per week the poll showed. That's a decline of over 7%. In certain states, however, restaurants have chopped their hours of operation more substantially with Vermont leading the way among states at more than 11 hours fewer per week and D.C. open for 12.5 fewer hours.

Since much of the industry operates on the slimmest of margins, restaurants try to make the most out of every hour that they're open, but a toxic stew of adverse supply chain conditions has forced their hand. These factors include higher food costs, overhead-related expenses (e.g. electricity, rent, etc.) and higher gas prices, a pain point for eateries that rely on delivery as one of their selling methods. 

Restaurants are in dire need of more staff.Restaurants are in dire need of more staff.

Staff shortages weighing on restaurants
For most, however, the main issue is related to staff: They simply don't have enough people who are ready and willing to work. It's gotten so bad, some franchises locations are closing on weekends, which typically comprise the days of the week why revenue is highest. According to a poll by the National Restaurant Association, close to two-thirds of restaurant owners surveyed said they do not have enough employees on hand to effectively serve all of their customers in a timely fashion. Indeed, 1 in 5 full-service operations say they're understaffed by 20% or more.

Jason Birchard, co-owner of a restaurant based in Manhattan that specializes in Ukrainian cuisine, told CNBC that he's having troubles with both recruitment and retention.

The restaurant segment in the Big Apple has been particularly hard hit. Datassential noted that of the 15 zip codes with the largest weekly decline in operating hours, 12 were in New York City.

Wage growth can help with recruitment and retention, but with rising food costs taking up even more of their budgets — nearly 90% say they're paying more for ingredients the National Restaurant Association poll found — doing so can compromise their profitability.

In addition to the worker shortage, other contributing factors to the reduction in hours include fewer people eating out, less traveling to and from work due to the growth in telecommuting and the ongoing impact the "Covid hangover" is having on social behaviors.

From rampant flooding to penetrating winds that ripped roofs off of dozens of homes and businesses, Hurricane Ian was one of Florida's most devastating storms in its history. That's saying something, given the Sunshine State has been on the receiving end of more of these storms than any other in the continental U.S. In fact, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Ian was a billion-dollar disaster, the 15th weather-related catastrophe to cross this threshold in 2022 so far.

Yet despite the damage Ian caused to Florida, its economy and to area businesses, major supply chains appear to have emerged relatively unscathed, particularly when compared to other recent natural disasters and weather anomalies.

Between large swaths of Interstate 75 being shut down for days due to flooding and numerous orange and grapefruit groves destroyed by heavy rainfall, early indicators certainly suggested that supply chains were bound to feel the effects, evidenced by longer lead times, higher prices and reduced supply. But well-choreographed and implemented recovery work has helped the state bounce back sooner than expected. Indeed, on Oct. 1, the Florida Department of Transportation reopened the 14 miles of I-75 that were closed off and the fertilizer industry — which orange growers depend on for production purposes — didn't suffer the blow that some farmers anticipated.

Florida is recovering nicely following Hurricane Ian.Florida is recovering nicely following Hurricane Ian.

Fertilizer producers down, but not out
Mosaic, the world's leading producer of concentrated phosphate and potash, said in a statement that Ian caused "modest damage" to its Tampa-area facilities, which was enough to likely diminish production output by between 200,000 and 250,000 metric tons as 2022 concludes. While that may be a loss for Mosaic, other leading fertilizer companies weren't impacted, Supply Chain Dive reported, so a ramp up in their production may be able to make up the difference.

Jason Miller, associate professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, told Supply Chain Dive that it definitely could have been worse for the state's supply chains, recalling how the freak ice storm in Texas in 2021 led to substantial disruption for refiners and petrochemical manufacturers.

"Given the geographies involved with Hurricane Ian, we're not looking at anything nearly of similar magnitude here," Miller explained. As the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported at the time, an estimated 80% of basic organic chemicals capacity was offline in the immediate aftermath of the ice storm, which struck in early to mid February of 2021. A month later, 60% were still unable to restart their operations.

Comparatively, business conditions have improved rather quickly for Florida, more than a month removed from when Ian first came ashore. The state government has likely played a role by being intimately involved with recovery efforts. Governor Ron DeSantis, in tandem with the Department of Economic Opportunity and 10 other state agencies, created FloridaStormRelief.com. While the website is primarily for homeowners, it also has resources for area businesses, including zero-interest bridge loans, business recovery centers and economic injury disaster loan programs.


Although they was the norm throughout much of 2021, bottlenecked conditions at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach have largely dissipated. But congestion is now rampant with several other leading port authorities, on the East Coast as well as in the Gulf. In an attempt to reduce unnecessary container volume, Port Houston intends to impose a dwell fee to shippers that don't remove their containers once they're emptied.

As noted on its website, Port Houston says it will begin to impose a dwell fee in the coming weeks. Poised to be effectuated on Dec. 1, the sustained import dwell fee will cost shippers $45 per day on all loaded imports for every additional day containers are allowed to remain at the terminal. Shippers at Port Houston have seven days to get their containers out of the way once they're unloaded, so the per-day penalty would theoretically begin on the eighth day they're there and then recur every day thereafter until the containers are cleared.

Additionally, Port Houston also plans to impose an "excessive dwell fee," which will go into effect when a public comment period about the excessive dwell fee concludes. It's expected to remain in place for 60 days but will only be used in what Port Houston describes as "acute" circumstances. It will also not run concurrently with the sustained import fee. In other words, it will either be one or the other.

Roger Guenther, executive director for Port Houston, said the authority is going to these lengths to speed the flow of traffic into and out of the port.

"This new fee structure is aimed to help mitigate the issue of long-dwelling loaded import containers by incentivizing cargo movement," Guenther explained.

Import volumes continue to climb for port authorities throughout the U.S., not just the West Coast.Import volumes continue to climb for port authorities throughout the U.S., not just on the West Coast.

Port Houston smashing import records
Unlike ports on the West Coast, where container volume is down substantially from where conditions were last year, imports haven't let up for Port Houston. Indeed, September was the second-busiest month on record for container cargo volumes, bested only by August when total container volume was nearly 382,850 TEUs. That's an increase of 20% compared to the same month in 2021 and up nearly 47,476 TEUs from Port Houston's previous all-time record, which was in May.

Container dwell fees are a common tactic port authorities use to encourage ocean carriers to be more mindful of other shippers, since there is only so much room for movement. The Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach have threatened to enact such fees numerous times over the last two years, but they've been tabled because the threats alone made a difference. Indeed, ever since Los Angeles and Long Beach announced the program on Oct. 25, aging cargo is down 69% combined, according to a press release. As a result, the authority said it will postpone consideration until mid November. 

Amid record inflows, Port Houston is going to other lengths to maximize movement and flow. This includes creating temporary space at area terminals and increasing investment in the authority's container yards.

Legislators, legislatures, automakers and much of the automotive industry are putting the pedal to the metal on electric vehicles. Whether it's the state of California poised to ban the sale of gas-powered vehicles by 2035 or the Inflation Reduction Act spending billions of dollars on alternative energy resources, the full court press toward EVs and hybrid vehicles appears to be underway.

Here's the problem: The batteries that EVs rely on to move require several rare earth minerals that the United States has very little of. If demand for EVs intensifies, as it's expected to over time, the lack of these key minerals will prevent manufacturers from producing at a rate that's quick enough to satisfy that elevated demand.

In an attempt to address this brewing problem, the federal government is working with key stakeholders to shore up its rare earth minerals supply chain.

The one it's starting with is lithium. Found in smartphones, laptops, wireless headphones and more, lithium is used in a wide variety of electronics because of it conducts electricity, creating the positive charges necessary for current to flow. But the United States has next to no lithium from natural sources. Indeed, according to estimates from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. is home to less than 4% of the world's lithium reserves.

Venkat Srinivasan, director of the Argonne Collaborative Center for Energy Storage Science at Argonne National Laboratory, told Supply Chain Dive that it's virtually impossible for the industry to mass produce EVs given this reality.

"Where is the supply? We don't make electrode materials," Srinivasan explained. "We don't make materials that go into the rest of the battery. We don't process the minerals. We don't even mine them."

Thus, when automakers and their sourcing partners need lithium and other vital minerals for fabrication, they have to import them from overseas, typically from China, Argentina and other countries where the mineral in question mined and found in higher quantities. But this activity winds up raising automakers' costs, which are passed on to the consumer.

Government is supporting lithium fabrication efforts
To bridge the divide, the government has awarded nearly $3 billion in grants to lithium suppliers. Speaking to this effort, President Joe Biden said 20 companies of the 200 that applied for these grants were ultimately given the funds.

"Together, these 20 companies are going to build new commercial-scale battery production and processing facilities all across America," Biden said. "They're going to develop lithium to supply over 2 million vehicles every year."

The White House has gone to other lengths in this matter as well. Earlier this year, the White House released the details of a $35 million investment in a magnet processing plant. Working with a company based out of California, the goal is to increase the output of rare earth minerals by optimizing extraction processes, so manufacturers have the materials they need to produce at a higher volume.

The Department of Energy is also working toward increasing refining capacity for other must-have minerals, like cobalt, nickel and graphite. It's a $140 million program that will create a critical minerals refinery that it says is the first of its kind. 

Inflation is burning a hole in Americans' wallets for consumers and business owners alike. Look no further than the Producers Price Index for proof. A measurement that assesses how much more companies are spending on their needs, the PPI was up 8.5% in September on an unadjusted year-over-year basis, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It comes as no surprise, then, that 30% of small-business owners say inflation is their single-biggest pain point, according to newly released polling conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business.

When you add in supply chain disruptions, which many companies are still encountering, organizations are looking for any opportunity to stretch their dollar further and offset their rising costs. Here are a few ways you can go about improving some of your supply chain processes, which can help you generate more income from the products or services you provide:

1. Update the FAQ section of your website
Is your customer service department getting a lot of the same questions lately? Whether it's when your location opens and closes or what your company's policy is on mask use, addressing frequently asked questions like these via phone or email replies can take your staff away from more important work functions that have a larger influence on your bottom line.

Thus, if you find you're getting the same kinds of questions over and over again, consider updating the FAQ page of your business's website. Look for themes in the inquiries you receive from customers. Regularly updating that page and making it easily locatable on your website can help you reallocate resources so you spend more time on the core needs of your business, which increases productivity and efficiency.

Make frequently asked questions less common by addressing them all on that page of your website.Make frequently asked questions less common by addressing them all on that page of your website.

2. Freshen up the product description pages
If you're a product-based company, you likely have a bunch of pages on your website or as part of your online store that detail the specifications of your merchandise. But it's possible that these pages may not be as descriptive as they need to be. Thus, take a look at the pages and do so with an inquiring mind. Is there anything on the page that ought be there but isn't? Be it where it was assembled or whether batteries are included, updating your website's product pages with data consumers want to know makes it easier for them to decide whether the item is right for them quickly, rather than abandoning the purchase because the pertinent information they needed was unavailable.

3. Invest in enterprise resource planning software
Even if you're a small business, you likely have several different departments, each of which is crucial to ensuring your customers have all they need. But you can't be everywhere at once to see how processes are going. Enterprise resource planning software gives you that visibility. Cloud-based ERP solutions are leveraged by companies in virtually every industry because they help to streamline their core business processes, including accounting, risk management, quality assurance, warehousing and more. An ERP centralizes all of these workflows so you can see what's happening in real time, which can improve work efficiency and enhance productivity.

Growers' supply chains have been rocked by soaring fertilizer costs and a dearth of applicants to provide needed labor. These and other challenges have forced them and grocers to sharply raise asking prices. With numerous farms in Florid decimated by Hurricane Ian, wholesale and retail prices for oranges, grapefruits, lemons and other citrus options are poised to surge with prime picking season just around the corner.

As reported by Supply Chain Dive, citrus farmers throughout western Florida are assessing the damage done to their property in the wake of Hurricane Ian. Matt Joyner, CEO of the trade association Florida Citrus Mutual, said Ian lived up to the hype, and it will take a long time for the state orange industry to recover.

"We have extensive fruit on the ground," Joyner said. "This is gonna be a tough event for Florida growers."

Striking the Sunshine State in the waning days of September, Hurricane Ian will go down as one of the largest to ever hit Florida, which is saying something since the state has seen numerous major hurricane events over the years. Ian was a Category 4 in terms of intensity and produced sustained winds clocked at approximately 150 miles per hour. It's believed to be the fourth-strongest hurricane to impact Florida based on wind speeds, according to Fox Weather.

Florida and California account for the vast majority of the United States' orange crop each year.Florida and California account for the vast majority of the United States' orange crop each year.

5% of Florida devastated by flooding
In addition to trees uprooted by heavy wind gusts, the other issue plaguing orange and grapefruit groves is heavy flooding. As with all other fruits and vegetables, citrus trees need moisture for growth, but the torrential rainfall has overwhelmed planted trees. Joyner noted that many of the trees are now beyond repair since they can't sustain the level of flooding they have been subject to for several days on end. Also reported by Fox Weather, over 3,500 square miles of Florida received at least 10 inches of rain inside of a 24-hour period. Approximately 3,500 square miles equates to 5% of the state in terms of land area. In Orlando, a major hub for orange farmers, roughly 25% of the city's total precipitation so far this year came from Hurricane Ian, according to Spectrum News 13.

With substantially fewer oranges for Florida fruit growers to harvest, the cost of grapefruits, oranges and minneolas is almost certain to spike sharply heading into the peak season for selling, which runs from December through March. Even without Ian, farmers haven't produced as much as they normally do. As Reuters reported from data compiled by the Department of Agriculture, total orange production prior to the storm was forecast to total around 3.5 million tons. That's a 13% dip compared to 2021 and marks the lowest output for oranges in more than half a century.

Ian certainly isn't the first major hurricane to affect Florida citrus farmers. In 2017, Hurricane Irma tore a path of destruction throughout the state. The level of damage done to farmers led to a 34% drop in citrus production compared to 2016, based on separate USDA figures.

Everyone has their opinions regarding the central factor most responsible for supply chain disruption. It's a debatable issue. Some point to COVID-19's hangover effects, others say it's a product of continued bottlenecks at major shipping ports, even though conditions have significantly improved from where they used to be during the height of the pandemic.

The ongoing truck driver shortage just may be the biggest supply chain obstacle of them all. While motor carriers, retailers and other organizations that rely on truckers have raised wages — often substantially, including for those just starting — there remain far more openings than job applicants. And when roles do get filled, the gains are frequently offset by other more seasoned drivers retiring and burned-out employees opting to leave the profession altogether.

The best way to reverse trucker turnover while steeling your supply chain is to get out ahead of it. Here are a few tips that can be effective, whether you're experiencing it now or are seeking a solution before it becomes a problem:

Install a feedback program
Every exiting employee — truck driver or otherwise — has a reason for leaving. People are often reluctant to say what's bothering them, though, for fear of how it will come across. A feedback program can change that reticence. A feedback program serves as a centralized, anonymized way to gauge how your crew members are feeling about their work environment, what they like and dislike and if there are any aspects of their jobs they would like to see changed. Emphasizing that the feedback is anonymous is crucial to increasing participation and ensuring employees are as honest and forthcoming as possible. Once they offer their input, you may be able to identify trends among respondents that can help you make the appropriate adjustments.

Key to truck driver retention is their happiness.Key to truck driver retention is their happiness.

Pay attention when a driver routinely arrives to work late
Be it 10 minutes to over a half hour, showing up to work late happens to everybody now and then. But when it happens again and again, an underlying issue is almost certainly to blame. The quickest way to nip this problem in the bud is to attack it head on by asking them the reason for their routine tardiness. What they say — and how they say it — can be revealing.

Establish an open door policy
As an employer, the overriding goal of running your business is to maximize productivity. But a big part of that is ensuring that your most indispensable asset to productivity — i.e. your staff — is satisfied. That's why it's of supreme importance for drivers to feel comfortable coming to you with any concerns that they're encountering. Employees frequently keep their emotions bottled up because they think their problems can't be addressed. While it's important for workers to understand that they all have a job to do, they should also be secure in the knowledge that their opinions matter and they're valued. When the members of your team know you have their back because you attend to their needs, they'll be more inclined to have yours as well.

Smeared on toast or melted for use in classic desserts like cookies and cake, butter is a delicious and ubiquitous condiment; it pairs well with savory and sweet foods alike. But with the dairy industry encountering production challenges and the holiday baking season around the corner, prices for butter are up appreciably — and the trend is expected to continue. 

With inflation already a major drag on the economy, diminished output — paired with elevated demand — is placing added pressure on the cost of butter. In August, for example, butter production fell 10% when compared to July, according to the Department of Agriculture. The USDA assesses the nation's stockpile by the amount of butter that producers have in cold storage.

Not only has butter volume fallen on a month-over-month basis, it's also down year over year. Indeed, volumes were down by 22% in August versus 12 months earlier, the USDA reported.

Not surprisingly, the average selling price for butter is climbing. For the week ending Sept. 24, a pound worth of Grade AA butter cost $3.17, based on the most recent data available from the USDA. That's a three-cent uptick from seven days prior, up from $2.97 on Aug. 27 and from $2.66 per pound during the first week of 2022.

Dairy cows are producing much less milk, which is placing upward pressure on food prices.Dairy cows are producing much less milk, which is placing upward pressure on food prices.

As previously noted, food costs have elevated steadily over most of the year due to a combination of factors fueling inflation, such as growth in the money supply, reduced refining activity for oil and supply chain challenges. But making matters worse are dairy cows who haven't produced as much milk. Tanner Ehmke, lead economist for dairy and specialty crops at the financial institution CoBank, told MarketWatch oppressive heat took a toll on cows over the summer, so butter producers have been drawing from less milk to make butter. With farmers forced to raise their prices, butter makers, must follow suit, trickling all the way down to the end user consumer.

Leanne Cutts, president and chief operations officer for Canada-based dairy company Saputo, said during an August earnings call that market dynamics relative supply and demand are forcing the company to re-evaluate its operations to remain competitive.

"It's clear that the milk pool has declined," Cutts said. "And therefore, we will need to ensure that our network going forward absolutely reflects this reality."

Dairy farmers challenged by rising costs
But it isn't just inauspicious weather patterns that have led to less milk. It's also a symptom of less dairy farming activity because of the high cost of doing business. Speaking to MarketWatch, National Milk Producers Federation Chief Economist Peter Vitaliano noted that diminished output happens now and then for farmers. When it does, they compensate by buying more cows. But with their food costs higher for feed types like corn silage, soybeans and grain, increasing the size of their herds would inevitably lead to diminishing returns.

Seeing the writing on the wall, some dairy producers are focusing on other products customers turn to them for, such as yogurt, cream cheese and cream. Supply Chain Dive reported manufacturers in the Northeast are devoting their resources to maximizing output of these kinds of products, which are all used more heavily during the holidays for traditional drinks and desserts like eggnog and pies.